:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Sep 25 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Regions 810 (N08W35)
and 812 (S02E45) produced no flares, and exhibited no significant
development.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  Slight chance of C-class flares possible from Region 810.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet all three days, with a moderate chance of
unsettled to active conditions on 27-28 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 081
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  005/008-010/015-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01