:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Sep 26 2226 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 810 (N08W49).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to
intervals of southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods possible due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
moving into geoeffective position on 27 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 081
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  012/015-012/020-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/15