:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 02 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low on 03 October. Activity is expected to increase to low levels
with isolated M-flares possible on 04 and 05 October due to the
return of old Region 808 (S09, L=232). Region 808 produced a total
of 13 major flares (M5 or greater) during its last transit across
the visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to
extended intervals of southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    10/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 075
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  080/085/090
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 091
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01