:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 05 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 813 (S08E18) produced a
C1 flare at 05/0822Z. This beta-gamma region continues in a growth
phase.  A large plage field associated with old Region 808 (S10, L =
232) has rotated into view on the southeast limb. There are no
sunspots currently visible in white light imagery in this once large
and complex sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 813.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 081
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 089
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  008/008-005/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01