:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 06 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 813
(S08E05) showed a slight decay in the trailing portion of the
sunspot group.  The magnetic gamma structure in Region 813 has
weakened during the period but remains intact.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 813 is capable of producing isolated
C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  The onset of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may result in active
conditions on 09 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 080
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 089
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  005/005-005/010-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05