:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 08 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 813
(S08W22) underwent further decay in sunspot area and magnetic
complexity.  This region is now showing simple magnetic beta
characteristics.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active
conditions.  The elevated levels are due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.  The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft
increased from 400 km/sec at the beginning of the period to over 650
km/sec by 08/0600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the first two days of the period (09 and 10 October).  A chance for
isolated minor storming may be possible on 09 October.  A return to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 11 October as the coronal
hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 078
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 089
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  015/020-012/015-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01