:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 10 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 813
(S07W48) continues to decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity continues at very low
levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole high
speed stream remains in effect, with solar wind speed ranging 600 -
650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 079
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 088
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/010-010/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01