:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 15 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 815 (N08E60)
grew slightly and was the only active region on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  A solar sector boundary crossing
was observed at ACE at 15/0000 UTC.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet.  Unsettled and isolated active conditions are
possible on 16 October from the influence of a geoeffective coronal
hole solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 080
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 088
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  005/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05