:Product: 1020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 20 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 21 Oct.  Unsettled conditions, with a chance
for active periods, are expected for 22-23 Oct, due to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 077
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  078/078/078
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 088
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  005/005-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/10/10