:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 22 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 815 (S14W68)
continues to decay.  LASCO imagery depicts a weak, full halo CME
that appears to be from a back-sided source region, first seen at
22/0942Z.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The Geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels, with a brief
active period observed between 22/0000Z and 22/0300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels throughout the period. 
The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned coronal
hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 075
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 088
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  010/012-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10