:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Oct 31 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at very low levels. A B8 flare
was observed at 31/1643Z from near S03 on the east limb. This area
of bright emission on the southeast limb is likely the return of old
Region 814 (S08, L=228). A new bipolar sunspot group was numbered
today as Region 819 (S09E26). This spot group emerged in close
proximity to Region 818 (S08E32), which is also a small beta group
in a slow growth phase.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from the tightly
grouped Regions 818 and 819. A C-class flare is also possible from
old active Region 814, which is rotating into view on the southeast
limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed
conditions were associated with a period of sustained southward IMF
Bz that began at around 31/0900Z and persisted through the remainder
of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position on 03 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 078
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  008/010-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05