:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Nov 04 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  No flares were
recorded during the period.  Regions 818 (S08W21) and 819 (S07W28)
continue to decay with one sunspot visible in each region.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm
conditions.  A coronal hole high speed stream continues to be
responsible for the elevated conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. 
Isolated periods of minor storm conditions are possible on 05
November, due to the coronal hole.  Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected to return on 06 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 077
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov  075/080/080
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  015/020-010/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01