:Product: 1113RSGA.txt :Issued: 2005 Nov 13 2204 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S06E66) produced an M2.5 flare at 13/1451 UTC, and several C-class events in the last 24 hours. This group is the only spotted region on the solar disk and is still to close to the limb for a detailed analysis. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 822 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind averaged around 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating between +1 to -4 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Nov 088 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 084 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/008-008/010-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01