:Product: 1114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Nov 14 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822
(S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC and
an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in
association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic
beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The
remainder of the disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a
possibility for major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated
period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 092
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/010-008/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05