:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Nov 20 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 822 (S08W25) produced
two C-class flares.  A C2.5 flare occurred at 20/0736Z, and a C1.5
flare occurred at 20/1520Z.  This region continues to slowly decay. 
New Region 824 (S13E68) rotated onto the visible disk today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 822 is capable of producing an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with periods of active
conditions occurring between 19/1500Z and 19/2100Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods possible on 21 November due to a solar sector boundary
crossing.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 096
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  012/015-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01