:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 01 0021 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. 
Region 826 (S02E36) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare occurring
at 30/1752Z.  White-light observations in Region 826,  depict a
rapid growth phase in sunspot area since yesterday.  This region has
also developed in magnetic complexity, with beta-gamma
characteristics evident.  New Region 827 (N08E56) was numbered today
and is currently a simply structured beta group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 826 is magnetically complex enough
to produce further isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred at middle and high latitudes
between 30/0900 and 1200Z
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.  Minor
storm conditions with a chance of high latitude major storm periods
are possible on 01 and 02 December due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.  A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled
levels is expected on 03 December as the coronal moves out of
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    30/30/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 095
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  015/020-015/020-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    15/15/05