:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 03 2357 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several low level C-flares were
produced by either Region 826 (S03W10) or 830 (N14E64); the largest
of which was a C5.3 at 03/0737 UTC from Region 830. Region 826 has
decreased in area in the central part of the spot region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for an isolated X-flare from Region 826.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were due
to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The 
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. On 05 December, minor storm periods
are possible due to CME activity from 02 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    55/50/45
Class X    20/15/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 101
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  008/012-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01