:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 04 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 826 (S04W21) produced
the only C-flare of the period; a C2.1 at 04/0945 UTC. New Region
831 (S06W07) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 826.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE
decreased from approximately 680 km/s to 560 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on
05 December due to transient flow from the 02 December CME. On 06
December quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.  On 07
December, quiet to active conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    35/30/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 095
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 086
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  012/015-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05