:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 16 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Region
836 (S10W78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.4 flare
at 16/1257Z.  This region was also the source of multiple B-class
flares.  No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 086
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  005/005-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01