:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 17 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels again today.  Region
836 (S10W91) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 16/2103Z, as this region
began to rotate off the west limb.  An associated CME was seen in
LASCO imagery that appears to have a westward component, not
expecting any geoeffective conditions.  Region 834 (S07W32) has
shown growth during the period and has developed into a beta-gamma
magnetic sunspot classification.  Region 837 (S10E22) is a newly
numbered four spot, Dso beta group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 834 has the potential to produced
C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet top unsettled levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    10/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 085
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  004/008-004/005-004/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01