:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 19 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Today's activity
consisted of a few B-class events from Region 837 (S10W06), which
has developed into the largest sunspot group on the disk at 200
millionths.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  Solar wind speed
showed an increase up to about 470 km/s after 1700Z, which was
accompanied by a southward interplanetary magnetic field.  The solar
wind speed appeared to be slowly declining after 2030Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days (20 -
22 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 090
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  090/090/085
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01