:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 20 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 837 (S11W19)
remains the largest group on the disk with about 210 millionths
sunspot area.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  Solar wind
speed increased to about 680 km/s after 0200Z with an accompanied
increase in temperature.  At time of issue, solar wind speed was
still elevated at approximately 560 km/s.  These solar wind
signatures are consistent with a small coronal hole
high-speed-stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (21 December)
with a chance for isolated active periods.  Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected for 22 and 23 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 088
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01