:Product: 1227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Dec 27 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Most spotted
regions showed some decay during the period with no significant
solar activity reported.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  A
recurrent high speed trans-equatorial coronal hole stream became
geoeffective late in the period.  The solar wind speed increased
from near 300 km/sec in the early part of the period to greater than
600 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storming periods possible, due to coronal hole effects.  A return to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 30 December as the high
speed stream wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Dec 092
Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        27 Dec 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  015/020-012/020-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/35
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10