:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 04 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity continued very low. Both spot groups on
the visible disk, Region 841 (N13W76) and Region 843 (N13W51), were
stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled. The slight increase later
in the period is due to the possible effects of a high speed solar
wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 084
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  005/003-005/005-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01