:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 05 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 843 (N12W64) produced an
impulsive C4/Sf flare at 0923 UTC. There was a Type II sweep
(estimated shock speed approx. 1100 km/s) associated with the flare.
This event followed soon after a long duration B8 x-ray flare from
nearby Region 841 (N13W91) which attained maximum at 0742 UTC. The
activity was preceded by plage brightenings in both regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 843 could produce an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A high speed solar wind stream
may boost activity slightly during the last two days of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 083
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  005/005-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01