:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 13 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A nine degree
disappearing solar filament centered at S05W19 occurred at
approximately 12/2340Z as seen from H-alpha and EIT imagery.  A
Type II radio sweep began at 13/0004Z with an estimated shock speed
of approximately 500 km/sec.  LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME on the
west limb beginning at 13/0054Z which does not appear to be Earth
directed.  No sunspots are visible on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 077
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  005/005-007/008-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/10