:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 15 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Two new regions were
numbered today; Region 847 (S09W08) which produced a C1 flare at
15/1445Z and Region 846 (N05W30) which has developed from a plage
region into a Dso Beta group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on
16 January due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 17 - 18 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 081
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  010/015-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01