:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 16 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 847 (S08W21)
produced several low-level B-class flares.  Region 846 (N06W44) has
remained quiescent.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  Active conditions
followed the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 084
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  085/085/090
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01