:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 17 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No significant
development was observed from the active regions on the solar disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 846
(N04W56) or 847 (S08W35).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 083
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01