:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 18 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Region 848 (S18E37)
emerged quickly over the past 24 hours into a D-type group with
minor magnetic mixing. No significant changes were noted in the
remaining two sunspot regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from
new Region 848.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor
storm period between 18/0900 - 1200Z. A short period of southward
IMF Bz accounted for the storm conditions. Solar speed was slightly
enhanced, ranging between 500 - 550 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 086
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  010/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01