:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 19 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A large filament eruption
and associated CME was observed off the SE limb today at about
19/1300Z. The CME does not appear to be Earth directed. Region 848
(S19E24) continues in a slow growth phase, and was responsible for
some low B-class activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 848.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 089
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  009/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01