:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 20 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 848 (S20E10) underwent
slow growth and developed minor magnetic mixing; however, no
activity of note was observed this period. The remainder of the
solar disk and limb was quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 848.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible on 23 January as a high speed coronal hole
stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 091
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 086
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01