:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 21 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 848
(S19W02) produced occasional B-class flares. Considerable new growth
was observed in the intermediate sunspots in this region, and a weak
delta configuration is now evident. No other activity of note was
observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
The increased magnetic complexity in Region 848 will likely result
in C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated active periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 January. Occasional active
periods are possible on 23 and 24 January as a coronal hole high
speed stream rotates into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 094
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 086
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  005/005-010/012-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/40
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/50
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05