:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 22 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  Region 848
(S19W15) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period,
the largest event was a C4 x-ray flare occurring at 22/1410Z.  A
weak delta spot is evident near the central cluster of intermediate
spots.  Region 849 (S07E44) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 848 has the potential of producing
isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions are possible on 23 and 24 January due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 093
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 086
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  010/012-012/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05