:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 23 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  Region
848 (S19W28) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the
period.  The magnetic delta spot seen yesterday has decayed and the
sunspot group is now classified a beta-gamma.  Region 850 (N06W05)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 848 remains capable of producing an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  An isolated
period of minor storming occurred at the Boulder magnetometer
between 23/0900 and 1200Z.  The elevated conditions are due to a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.  The solar wind speeds
increased from near 400 km/sec to over 600 km/sec, between 23/0600
and 1200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels.  Isolated active
periods are possible on 24 and 25 January due to the coronal hole
high speed stream. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected
on 25 January as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 092
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 086
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  012/015-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01