:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jan 24 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  Region 848
(S19W41) produced multiple B and C-class flares today, the largest
was a C3 x-ray flare occurring at 24/2217Z.  This regions sunspot
area increased during the period and magnetic analysis continues to
show weak gamma characteristics.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 848 remains capable of producing C-class flare
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The elevated
conditions are due to a favorably positioned high speed coronal hole
stream, which has been waning over the later part of the period. 
Wind speed was nearing 400 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 093
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 087
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01