:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 09 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 853 (S11W49)
produced a B1 flare at 08/2113Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days. Unsettled conditions are
expected beginning on the third day due to a coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 075
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  075/080/085
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 087
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01