:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 11 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  LASCO imagery showed a
CME on the SE limb beginning at about 10/2330Z which does not appear
to be Earth directed.  One spot remains visible in Region 853
(S09W78).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Quiet conditions should return
on 13 Feb.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 076
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 087
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01