:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 15 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Region 854 (S07E23)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of an
isolated active period on 16 February. On 17 and 18 February, mostly
quiet conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 079
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 086
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01