:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity remains at very low levels. Developing
Region 854 (S07E10) appears to have stabilized as a small D-type
sunspot group with very little flare potential. A prominence erupted
early in the period off the southwest limb near S38, but no
geomagnetic response is expected. New Region 855 (N06E28) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions during the first half of the period. Solar wind speed was
elevated to near 600 km/s, but declined to near 450 km/s by the end
of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 Feb. A coronal hole
high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position
on 19 February and produce occasional active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 079
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05