:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 17 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 854
(S08W09) and newly numbered Region 855 (N05E15) are both in decay. A
large CME was observed off the northeast limb at approximately
17/0530Z. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 18 February. A coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 19
February. Unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
possible on 19 and 20 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 079
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  005/005-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05