:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 20 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  No significant
activity was noted again today.  The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.  An
enhancement of the solar wind speed occurred near 20/1000Z (400
km/sec to 550/ km/sec) due to a geoeffective coronal hole.  A brief
period of major storm levels occurred at higher latitudes between
20/1500 and 1800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on 21 and 22 February, due
to a favorably positioned coronal hole.  Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 23 February as the coronal hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 076
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  010/015-012/020-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/05