:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 21 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity remains at very low levels.  Activity
was limited to a small disappearing solar filament which occurred in
the southwest quadrant.  The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The elevated
conditions are due to a favorably positioned transequatorial coronal
hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  The coronal hole should
begin to wane late on 24 February with conditions diminishing to
quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 076
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  009/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  012/020-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05