:Product: 0222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Feb 22 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Unsettled to active
periods were due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from
approximately 700 km/s to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 23 and 24 February as a coronal
hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on 25 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 076
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  010/020-010/020-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05