:Product: 0307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Mar 08 0005 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 856 (S08W38)
produced a long-duration B2 flare at 07/1614Z.  A six degree
disappearing filament, centered at N02E24, was reported between
06/1000Z and 06/2255Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active conditions
occurred from 07/0000Z to 07/0600Z as a result of a prolonged period
of southward IMF Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.  On 09-10
March, predominantly unsettled conditions are expected, with
possible isolated active periods.  This increased activity is due to
a high speed coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 074
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  008/010-010/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10