:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Mar 17 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
just two small, unipolar sunspot groups on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 March. A high speed coronal
hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 19
March. Expect active conditions with minor storm periods at high
latitudes on both 19 and 20 March.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 072
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/010-010/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/10