:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Mar 18 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels.  There are
two simply structured spotted regions on the visible disk.  New
Region 862 was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  A
recurrent coronal hole became geoeffective just after 18/0700Z.  A
period of minor storm conditions were observed at the Boulder
magnetometer between 18/0900 and 1200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels though 19 and 20 March.
There is a chance for isolated periods of minor storm conditions
through the geoeffective stage of the favorably positioned coronal
hole.  A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 21 March
as the coronal hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 072
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar  070/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  015/020-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/30
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/05