:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Mar 20 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 862
(S07W27) continues to show growth in sunspot area and remains the
only spotted region on the visible disk.  Magnetic analysis depicts
a weak gamma structure developing within the intermediate cluster of
sunspots.  Multiple B-class flares were observed from Region 862
during the period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels today. 
The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned coronal
hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
periods may be possible on 21 March due to a waning geoeffective
high speed coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 077
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  024/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  020/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  010/012-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01