:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Mar 22 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 862 (S06W51) produced an
isolated C2.1 flare at 21/2326 UTC along with numerous B-class
flares. This region retains its beta gamma magnetic configuration,
while there appears to be a decline in areal coverage. New Region
863 (N08W52) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period
occurred between 22/0300 and 22/0600 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 March. On 24 and 25 March,
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with the possibility of
isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 076
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  005/008-008/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05