:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Mar 23 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 862 (S07W66)
decayed to approximately 60 millionths in area. A CME was detected
in LASCO imagery at 22/2150 UTC off of the east limb. This CME
appeared to be a backside event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 862.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for isolated
active periods. Elevated activity is due to a coronal hole high
speed stream that is expected to become geoeffective on 24 March.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 077
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  008/012-008/012-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01